CALGARY, Alberta--()--Canada’s oil sands will experience large production growth through 2019 followed by more modest, steady growth through 2027, according to a new 10-year production forecast by business information provider IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO). CERI forecasts oil sands production growth through 2036. The Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) forecast continual growth in oil sands production to 2036 in its latest report on oil sands supply costs. The report also evaluated how greenhouse gas emission caps will affect future production rates. Alberta’s oil sands will be responsible for the majority of crude oil production growth in Canada through 2040 in all six cases, with nearly all of that growth because of increasing in situ Footnote 1 production. This supplemental report provides additional analysis of the Reference Case as well as data and results from all six cases. Differences in the production forecasts between the cases are attributable to differences in oil price assumptions and the application of new technologies Estimated Production of Canadian Crude Oil and Equivalent. For further information, contact [email protected] 2020 (updated 5 March 2020) [EXCEL 684 KB] 2019 (updated 5 March 2020) [EXCEL 681 KB] ARCHIVED – Estimated Production of Canadian Crude Oil and Equivalent
5 Aug 2019 Cost control has made the Alberta oilsands, Canada's star growth market for natural gas, “decidedly economic” and production will likely climb 5 Dec 2019 Oil sands development to lead increase Forecast assumes pipeline to increased production, Canada's energy consumption is forecast to rise
The oil sands are the third-largest proven oil reserve in the world, representing 166.3 billion barrels (or 97%) of Canada’s 171 billion barrels of proven oil reserves (technical overview). In 2014, oil sands production was 2.2 million barrels per day. The IEA forecasts that in the next 25 years oil sands production in Canada will increase by more than 3 million barrels per day (480,000 m 3 /d), but Dr. Birol said "the emissions of this additional production is equal to only 23 hours of emissions of China — not even one day." The IEA is charged with responsibility for battling climate change, but Dr. Birol said he spends little time worrying about carbon emissions from oil sands. "There is a lot of discussion on oil sands projects in The company forecasts production to rise more than half a million barrels per day in 2019 and up to one million barrels per day higher by 2027 compared to today. “Pipeline constraints have exacerbated price discounts for Western Canadian heavy oil relative to global benchmarks. While production cuts have proven to be successful, it is not a sustainable mechanism, as it deters investment in the industry. IHS Markit forecasts a slowdown in Canadian oil sands production, from more than 150,000 bpd in the last 10 years to less than 100,000 bpd in the coming decade.